Develop a Gap Analysis for the Colombian GHG Emission Reduction Target under the Updated NDC and a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) to Support Prioritization of Mitigation Options

• Country: Colombia
• Summary: Develop a Gap Analysis for the Colombian GHG Emission Reduction Target under the Updated NDC and a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) to Support Prioritization of Mitigation Options
• COT Ref No: 52265279
• Deadline: 29 Apr 2021
• Financier: World Bank (WB)
• Purchaser Ownership: Government
• Tender Value: Refer Document
• Notice Type: Tender
• Document Ref. No.: 1274026
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• Description:
• Expression of Interest are invited for Develop a Gap Analysis for the Colombian GHG Emission Reduction Target under the Updated NDC and a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) to Support Prioritization of Mitigation Options. REQUEST FOR EXPRESSION OF INTEREST FOR SELECTION # 1274026 This Request for Expression of Interest is for a Firm Selection. Please log in as a valid Firm User if you wish to express interest in this selection. Selection Information Assignment Title Develop a gap analysis for the Colombian GHG emission reduction target under the updated NDC and a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) to support prioritization of mitigation options. Publication Date 15-Apr-2021 Expression of Interest Deadline 29-Apr-2021 at 11:59:59 PM (Eastern Time - Washington D.C.) Language of Notice English Selection Notice Assignment Country · CO - Colombia Funding Sources The World Bank Group intends to finance the assignment/services under: · BB - BANK BUDGET · TF0B2376 - Colombia - NDC-SF CAEP Grant Individual/Firm The consultant will be a firm. Assignment Description On December 29, 2020, Colombia submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The updated NDC is noteworthy for committing to a greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction of 51% by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This implies a significant increase from the 20% commitment (30% contingent on international support) contained in the original NDC. At the same time, an existing quantitative analysis that adopts a modelling framework based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform -LEAP- model estimated that existing mitigation measures in the updated NDC could yield up to a GHG reduction of 38% in the most optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 128 MtCO2-eq from the 2030 reference scenario of 346 MtCO2-eq. A more ambitious 51% NDC goal requires a GHG reduction of 176 MtCO2-eq for that same year, which implies increasing the reduction effort by an additional 48 MtCO2-eq. In addition, the updated NDC does not provide an estimation of the costs associated with its mitigation options portfolio, which can be done through Marginal Abatement Cost Curves MACCs. Due to previous efforts , a suitable tool is available and ready to be filled in for the currently identified mitigation measures. As a result, in support to the Colombian government, the World Bank wants to engage the services of a firm or consortium that will be able to use the existing LEAP model to identify additional enabling policy instruments and GHG mitigation options, assess the impact of the current mitigation actions, and identify subsectors and technologies that can generate additional emission reduction gains. This exercise will support closing the existing GHG ambition gap (i.e., fill the gap between the updated NDC mitigation target and the current set of mitigation actions), either by augmenting the existing mitigations actions or by adding new ones. Moreover, as part of the GHG ambition gap analysis, the World Bank requests the selected firm or consortium to build the MACCs using the existing tool and framework, and to expand them to cover additional suitable mitigation options. This technical work will be developed in collaboration with the Government of Colombia as a valuable input for the Implementation of the updated NDC. The objective of this consultancy is to identify options across sectors for filling the gap between the mitigation target of the updated Colombian NDC and the current set of mitigation actions, built upon the emission scenarios developed by the World Bank. Furthermore, complete the calculation of the MACC and expand their scope to help prioritize newly identified mitigation measures that can be achieved in the updated Colombian NDC. It is of relevance for the MACC analysis and deliverables to address the potential cost of inaction, postponing critical actions, and measures that result more costly solutions in the future. The consultant will carry out its work under the supervision of the designated World Bank Task Team and will coordinate closely with technical representatives from the Government of Colombia. Attachments · Optional TOR File Qualification Criteria · 1. Technical experience required: Advising international institutions and governments on the design and/or analysis of GHG emissions and reductions, inventories and projections; Preparing mitigation-costs curves for different sectors; Experience using and preparing models in LEAP tool. · 2. General experience required: Ability to present technical concepts clearly to both technical and nontechnical experts; Drafting of technical documents in a clear and concise manner; Ability to work with and take into account the suggestions of other experts. · 3. Ability to work in the Colombian context: An understanding of national policies and regulations; The team needs to be proficient in Spanish and have working knowledge of English; At least part of the team needs to have a permanent presence in Bogotá full time to participate in ad hoc working groups, workshops, and liaise with the Bank team and government. · 4. Team composition: The firm is expected to establish a multisectoral team comprising at minimum: A team leader with a minimum of 10 years of experience in advising governments and/or development agencies on the analysis of GHG reductions programs; Professionals with knowledge and previous experience in LEAP modeling and sector analysis GHG emissions options; Other technical staff as necessary to carry out the required task within 6 months. Further qualification in the ToR attached. Terms of Reference Consultancy to support the increased mitigation ambition in the Updated Colombian Nationally Determined Contribution and to calculate the associated Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) I. CONTEXT On December 29, 2020, Colombia submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The updated NDC is noteworthy for committing to a greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction of 51% by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This implies a significant increase from the 20% commitment (30% contingent on international support) contained in the original NDC. At the same time, an existing quantitative analysis that adopts a modelling framework based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform -LEAP- model estimated that existing mitigation measures in the updated NDC could yield up to a GHG reduction of 38% in the most optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 128 MtCO2-eq from the 2030 reference scenario of 346 MtCO2-eq. A more ambitious 51% NDC goal requires a GHG reduction of 176 MtCO2-eq for that same year, which implies increasing the reduction effort by an additional 48 MtCO2-eq. In addition, the updated NDC does not provide an estimation of the costs associated with its mitigation options portfolio, which can be done through Marginal Abatement Cost Curves - MACCs. Due to previous efforts , a suitable tool is available and ready to be filled in for the currently identified mitigation measures. As a result, in support to the Colombian government, the World Bank wants to engage the services of a firm or consortium that will be able to use the existing LEAP model to identify additional enabling policy instruments and GHG mitigation options, assess the impact of the current mitigation actions, and identify subsectors and technologies that can generate additional emission reduction gains. This exercise will support closing the existing GHG ambition gap (i.e., fill the gap between the updated NDC mitigation target and the current set of mitigation actions), either by augmenting the existing mitigations actions or by adding new ones. Moreover, as part of the GHG ambition gap analysis, the World Bank requests the selected firm or consortium to build the MACCs using the existing tool and framework, and to expand them to cover additional suitable mitigation options. This technical work will be developed in collaboration with the Government of Colombia as a valuable input for the Implementation of the updated NDC. II. OBJECTIVE To identify options across sectors for filling the gap between the mitigation target of the updated Colombian NDC and the current set of mitigation actions, built upon the emission scenarios developed by the World Bank . Furthermore, complete the calculation of the MACCs and expand their scope to help prioritize newly identified mitigation measures that can be achieved in the updated Colombian NDC. It is of relevance for the MACC analysis and deliverables to address the potential cost of inaction, postponing critical actions, and measures that result in more costly solutions in the future . III. TASKS The consultant will carry out its work under the supervision of the designated World Bank Task Team Leader and will coordinate closely with technical representatives from the Government of Colombia. The consultant will perform the following tasks: TASK 1: Updated NDC gap analysis Activity 1.1. Analyze the updated NDC, its emissions reductions targets, and stated mitigation activities. Activity 1.2. Provide an assessment of the suitability and potential challenges to implement the existing mitigation actions in the NDC. Activity 1.3. Identify additional GHG mitigation options by adapting the LEAP model and evaluate the effect of modifying underlying assumptions in the existing mitigation actions; identify sectors, subsectors, technologies, and other measures that can result in additional emission reduction gains, including due to emissions sources not covered by current mitigation
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